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Indicative price brief for Urea - Middle East. Methodology: trade publications, broker reports, and industry sources reviewed by Nexchem. This is directional intelligence, not a regulated benchmark assessment.
FOB Middle East granular and prilled urea spot pricing. QAFCO Fertil and SABIC export terminal disruption analysis, Hormuz closure export logistics assessment, natural gas feedstock cost advantage, India and Europe destination market impact, and 3-scenario price outlook. Published monthly.
Middle Eastern urea producers are experiencing the same Hormuz export paradox as ammonia and polyolefins - the FOB price is 14.5% above June 2025 because the Hormuz disruption is removing their supply from the global market and tightening balances everywhere, but they cannot fully dispatch at that premium because the tanker delays, alternative routing costs, and insurance surcharges are consuming a significant portion of the FOB price improvement in delivered economics.
Middle Eastern urea production capacity is among the lowest cost globally, using subsidised natural gas at approximately USD 52 per metric tonne of urea production cost versus USD 112 per metric tonne for European gas-based producers at current TTF pricing. QAFCO at Mesaieed Qatar with approximately 3.2 million MT per year of urea capacity is the world largest single-site urea producer. Fertil at Ruwais Abu Dhabi adds approximately 1.4 million MT per year and SABIC at Al-Jubail adds approximately 1.8 million MT per year. Together these three producers account for approximately 18% of global urea export supply, making the Hormuz disruption to their dispatch logistics the single largest supply shock to the global urea market since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine supply disruption. Demand for Urea in Middle East is driven by industrial process applications across fertiliser, metal processing, and chemical synthesis end uses, with pricing linked to domestic production economics and the cost of the marginal swing supply source serving regional buyers at current volume requirements. QAFCO Fertil and SABIC Export Delays - Qatar QAFCO at Mesaieed, Fertil at Ruwais Abu Dhabi, and SABIC at Jubail are the primary Middle Eastern urea exporters.
All three are experiencing vessel loading and dispatch delays from the Hormuz closure, with tanker turnaround times ext. In the current 2026 supply and demand environment, Urea pricing in Middle East reflects both structural market conditions and active geopolitical supply chain disruption. The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For FOB Middle East urea, the Hormuz disruption is the primary and direct pricing driver - QAFCO, Fertil, and SABIC are the three largest Middle Eastern urea exporters and all three require Hormuz transit for significant portions of their export logistics. The FOB price of USD 268 per metric tonne reflects the scarcity premium that Middle Eastern urea disruption creates globally, but the effective net realisation for producers after surcharge deduction is substantially below the headline FOB improvement. Surcharge Impact on Delivered Economics - The Hormuz surcharge of USD 24 to USD 38 per metric tonne is reducing the effective margin improvement that Middle Eastern producers capture from elevated global urea pricing. .
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The paid report includes full scenario assumptions, quarterly price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027, probability weighting for each scenario, and a procurement recommendation tailored to each case - covering what to do if the bull case materialises, what to hedge in the base case, and how to protect exposure in the bear case.
The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For FOB Middle East urea, the Hormuz disruption is the primary and direct pricing driver - QAFCO, Fertil, and SABIC are the three largest Middle Eastern urea exporters and all three require Hormuz transit for significant portions of their export logistics. The FOB price of USD 268 per metric tonne reflects the scarcity premium that Middle Eastern urea disruption creates globally, but the effective net realisation for producers after surcharge deduction is substantially below the headline FOB improvement.
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