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Indicative price brief for Steel HRC - Asia. Methodology: trade publications, broker reports, and industry sources reviewed by Nexchem. This is directional intelligence, not a regulated benchmark assessment.

NXP-MM-001 Metals & Mining Asia CFR SE Asia Updated June 2026

Steel HRC - Asia
Price Intelligence Report

CFR SE Asia hot-rolled coil pricing. China export volume tracker, iron ore and coking coal feedstock cost analysis, EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism impact assessment, POSCO and Bao Steel capacity utilisation, and 3-scenario price outlook. The most directly China-exposed commodity in the Nexchem metals tracking list. Published monthly.

Asian HRC pricing in 2026 is dominated by a single variable that no other commodity faces at the same scale - Chinese steel overcapacity that has been producing at rates above domestic demand for three consecutive years, creating an export surplus that reprices every competing steel market globally when Chinese mills adjust their export offer.

Asia - CFR SE Asia Spot
USD 512/MT
CFR SE Asia · HRC · Spot · June 2026
▼ -USD 28 (-5.2% vs June 2025)
USD 488 (Mar 2026)12-Month RangeUSD 598 (Sep 2025)
12-Month High
USD 598
Sep 2025
12-Month Low
USD 488
Mar 2026
Annual Subscription
USD 4,900
USD 408/mo equiv · 17% saving
Used by
🏢Corporate strategy and procurement teams
💼Private equity and venture capital investors
🔬Chemical and materials R&D teams
📊Management and strategy consultants
🏦Investment banking and M&A advisory
Report Contents - 9 Sections~14 pages · PDF + Excel
01
Market Metrics
Current spot price, 12-month high and low, year on year change, and the key spread indicator - feedstock or conversion margin - that drives near-term pricing direction
02
Price by Grade
Full grade-level price table covering all commercial grades with Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025 comparison, direction indicator, and basis notation
Full data in paid report
03
Supply and Demand
Regional supply and demand balance for 2024 actual, 2025 estimated, and 2026 to 2027 forecast - production volumes, import dependency by origin, operating rates, and key capacity events
Full data in paid report
04
Capacity Atlas
Site-level producer table covering company, facility location, nameplate capacity in KT per year, production technology, current operating status, and analyst notes on reliability and qualification risk
Full data in paid report
05
Trade Flows
Import and export volume data by origin and destination with Hormuz disruption risk rating, vessel transit times, and freight cost comparison across supply routes
Full data in paid report
06
Margin Analysis
Feedstock cost and gross margin decomposition by production route - NWE naphtha versus Middle East ethane versus USGC ethane versus Chinese coal - with sensitivity table
Full data in paid report
07
Price Drivers
3 to 4 named drivers ranked by near-term price impact with quantified supply or cost effect per driver, driver-specific timeline, and risk rating
Full data in paid report
08
Forward Scenarios
Bull, Base, and Bear price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027 with probability weighting, key assumptions, scenario trigger events, and a procurement recommendation for each case
Full data in paid report
09
Analyst Perspectives
Nexchem Intelligence analyst field intelligence on supply shortages, alternative source qualification timelines, geopolitical friction, and pricing pressure specific to this market
Full data in paid report
Active Supply and Market Alerts2 Active Alerts
HIGH
China Steel Export Volumes - Record Levels Pressuring Asian Prices - Chinese steel exports in Q1 2026 reached an estimated annualised rate of approximately 110 million metric tonnes per year - the highest level since 2015-2016 - as domestic demand remains below production capacity. This export surge is the primary downward price pressure on all Asian and European steel markets.
MEDIUM
EU CBAM Steel - Carbon Cost Impact from January 2026 - The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its full implementation phase for steel in January 2026. Chinese and other non-ETS steel imports into the EU now carry an estimated EUR 42 per metric tonne carbon cost, partially offsetting the Chinese cost advantage for EU-destined volumes and redirecting some Chinese export flows toward non-EU Asian markets.
Price by Grade - Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025Preview · 2 of 6 grades shown
Grade / ProductRegion / BasisQ2 2026Q2 2025Direction
HRC Spot - CFR SE AsiaCFR SE AsiaUSD 512/MTUSD 540/MT↓ Falling
HRC Chinese Export Offer FOBFOB ChinaUSD 488/MTUSD 514/MT↓ Falling
HRC CFR IndiaCFR IndiaUSD 524/MTUSD 552/MTFalling
HRC CFR VietnamCFR VietnamUSD 508/MTUSD 536/MTFalling
Iron Ore CFR China 62% Fe ref.CFR ChinaUSD 98/MTUSD 118/MTFalling
Coking Coal FOB Australia ref.FOB AustraliaUSD 204/MTUSD 228/MTFalling
Full grade price table in paid report  ·  Subscribe from USD 4,900/yr
Supply and Demand - Market ContextPreview · Full data in paid report

Asian steel HRC supply is dominated by Chinese producers who account for approximately 54% of global crude steel production. China's crude steel output in 2025 was approximately 1,020 million metric tonnes against domestic consumption of approximately 940 million metric tonnes, generating a structural export surplus of approximately 80 million metric tonnes per year. POSCO in South Korea, Nippon Steel and JFE in Japan, and Tata Steel in India are the primary non-Chinese Asian HRC producers serving the CFR SE Asia market. The EU CBAM implementation from January 2026 is diverting some Chinese HRC export flows from European to Asian destinations, increasing competition in CFR SE Asia. Demand for Steel HRC in Asia is driven by automotive, construction, and energy transition end uses, with pricing set by LME financial market clearing, regional delivery premiums, and trade policy measures including tariffs, sanctions, and quota arrangements that separate regional markets from the global benchmark. Record Levels Pressuring Asian Prices - Chinese steel exports in Q1 2026 reached an estimated annualised rate of approximately 110 million metric tonnes per year - the highest level since 2015-2016 - as domestic demand remains below production capacity. This export surge is. In the current 2026 supply and demand environment, Steel HRC pricing in Asia reflects both structural market conditions and active geopolitical supply chain disruption.

The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For Asian steel HRC, the Hormuz disruption has a limited direct price impact - the primary steel trade flows in Asia do not transit the Strait of Hormuz. The indirect impact is through iron ore and coking coal shipping costs for Middle Eastern steel producers including Emirates Steel and Hadeed, whose competitiveness in Asian export markets is marginally affected by elevated freight costs. The dominant pricing variables for CFR SE Asia HRC in 2026 remain Chinese export volume decisions and iron ore pricing, which is itself determined primarily by Chinese blast furnace operating rates and Brazilian Vale production recovery rather than by the Hormuz situation. Carbon Cost Impact from January 2026 - The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its full implementation phase for steel in January 2026. Chinese and other non-ETS steel imports into the EU now carry an estimat.

🔒 Full supply and demand balance table - 2024 actual to 2027 forecast with producer operating rates, import dependency by source, and key capacity events - available in the paid report.
YoY Price Change
-5.2%
vs June 2025 · June 2026 basis
12-Month Range
USD 488 - USD 598
Mar 2026 low · Sep 2025 high
Report Subscription
USD 4,900/yr
Monthly PDF + Excel · 9 sections
Field Context - Asia
The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For Asian steel HRC, the Hormuz disruption has a limited direct price impact - the primary steel trade flows in Asia do not transit the Strait of Hormuz. The indirect impact ...
Report Format PreviewPDF · ~14 pages · Navy structured layout

The paid report is a professionally formatted PDF with structured sections, colour-coded grade price tables, alert boxes, capacity atlas tables, a 3-scenario price outlook, and analyst cards. The accompanying Excel file contains all price data in editable format for direct integration into procurement models.

🔒
Sample page visible after subscription

Full report preview available after subscription. Illustrative mock shown above.

Analyst PerspectivesNexchem Intelligence Analysts

Every Nexchem Intelligence price report includes field-level analyst commentary covering supply shortages, qualification timelines, geopolitical friction, and pricing pressure - not generic market narrative. Nexchem analysts are active in the market and attribute all field intelligence to verifiable primary sources.

NX
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst
Head of Petrochemicals & Specialty Chemicals
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst · Field intelligence · Procurement contacts
"Chinese steel exports at an annualised 110 million MT per year are repricing every steel market in the world that is not protected by tariffs or trade barriers - Southeast Asian buyers are receiving the full force of that surplus, and the CFR SE Asia price decline of USD 28 per metric tonne year on year understates the structural pressure that Chinese overcapacity is creating."
Nexchem Procurement View
Extended perspective and procurement recommendation locked - available in paid report
Extended analyst perspective in paid report
NX
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst
Head of Advanced Materials & Green Chemicals
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst · Field intelligence · Procurement contacts
"The EU CBAM is the most important structural change in global steel trade flows in a decade - it is not yet large enough to fully offset the Chinese cost advantage but it is redirecting Chinese export flows and creating a two-tier global steel market where CBAM-covered markets trade at a premium to non-CBAM markets. That divergence will widen as CBAM carbon prices increase through 2026 to 2030."
Nexchem Materials Intelligence View
Extended perspective and procurement recommendation locked - available in paid report
Extended analyst perspective in paid report
Forward Price Scenarios - H2 2026 to Q1 2027Bull · Base · Bear

The paid report includes full scenario assumptions, quarterly price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027, probability weighting for each scenario, and a procurement recommendation tailored to each case - covering what to do if the bull case materialises, what to hedge in the base case, and how to protect exposure in the bear case.

Bull Case
USD 558 - 598
Q3 2026 · 25% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
Base Case
USD 498 - 538
Q3 2026 · 50% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
Bear Case
USD 448 - 488
Q3 2026 · 25% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
2026 Geopolitical Supply Chain ContextHormuz · US-Iran · Iranian Methanol

The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For Asian steel HRC, the Hormuz disruption has a limited direct price impact - the primary steel trade flows in Asia do not transit the Strait of Hormuz. The indirect impact is through iron ore and coking coal shipping costs for Middle Eastern steel producers including Emirates Steel and Hadeed, whose competitiveness in Asian export markets is marginally affected by elevated freight costs. The dominant pricing variables for CFR SE Asia HRC in 2026 remain Chinese export volume decisions and iron ore pricing, which is itself determined primarily by Chinese blast furnace operating rates and Brazilian Vale production recovery rather than by the Hormuz situation.

Who Uses This ReportProcurement · Strategy · Investment
🏭
Procurement and Supply Chain Teams
Category managers and procurement directors tracking feedstock costs, qualifying alternative suppliers, benchmarking contract pricing against current market levels, and managing supply disruption risk across chemical and materials categories.
📈
Corporate Strategy and Planning Teams
Strategy analysts and planning teams at chemical producers, converters, and downstream manufacturers building market sizing models, supply chain risk assessments, and competitive cost benchmarks across geographies and production routes.
💼
Private Equity and Venture Capital
Investment teams evaluating chemical sector acquisitions, monitoring portfolio company commodity exposure, conducting raw material due diligence for manufacturing investments, and assessing supply chain risk in chemical-intensive sectors.
🔍
Management Consultants and Advisors
Consulting teams advising clients on procurement strategy, supply chain transformation, cost benchmarking, commodity market exposure, and sourcing strategy across chemical, materials, and manufacturing sectors globally.
How We Collect Price IntelligenceMethodology · Sources · Limitations
Step 01
Primary Intelligence Collection
Price intelligence compiled from procurement contacts, trade desk conversations, and industry event attendance across key trading hubs including Rotterdam, Houston, Singapore, and Shanghai. Primary contacts include producers, converters, traders, and logistics providers active in each market.
Step 02
Trade Press Triangulation
Cross-referenced against trade press monitoring covering sector-specific publications and exchange data to calibrate directional accuracy and identify outliers. Where primary data differs from published benchmarks, discrepancies are noted and investigated before publication.
Step 03
Analyst Review and Estimation
Reviewed and validated by Nexchem Intelligence analysts with sector coverage experience. Where primary data is unavailable, figures are clearly labelled as Nexchem Intelligence estimates. Not a price assessment. Not for contract settlement or derivative pricing.

Important: Nexchem Intelligence price reports are indicative price intelligence, not price assessments. We are not a Price Reporting Agency and our prices are not IOSCO-compliant. For contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, or derivative pricing, use ICIS, Argus, or S&P Global Platts. Our reports are for procurement strategy, supply chain planning, and market analysis only.

Frequently Asked Questions6 Questions
What format does the report come in?
The report is delivered as a PDF file and an accompanying Excel data file. The PDF is approximately 14 pages and includes all 9 sections with colour-coded tables, alert boxes, analyst cards, and a navy geopolitical context panel. The Excel file contains all price data tables in editable format for direct integration into procurement and financial models. Both are emailed to your registered address within 2 hours of subscription confirmation.
How often is this report updated?
Price intelligence reports are updated monthly. Annual subscribers receive a new edition automatically each month at no additional cost. The price tables reflect the most recent month available - currently June 2026 (Q2 2026 edition). Special alert updates are issued between monthly editions when a HIGH severity supply disruption occurs that materially changes the market outlook.
Is this an official price assessment like ICIS or Argus?
No. Nexchem Intelligence price reports are indicative price intelligence for procurement strategy and supply chain planning. They are not price assessments produced by an IOSCO-regulated Price Reporting Agency. They should not be used for contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, financial reporting, or derivative pricing. For those applications, ICIS or Argus are the appropriate sources. Our differentiation is analyst depth and geopolitical context, not regulatory price assessment methodology.
Can I cancel my subscription?
Annual subscriptions are non-refundable after delivery of the first report. Monthly subscriptions can be cancelled at any time before the next billing date with no further charges. Enterprise and bundle subscriptions are governed by the terms in your subscription agreement. Contact [email protected] for any subscription queries.
Can I share the report within my organisation?
Single SKU subscriptions include 1 user seat. Analyst bundle subscriptions (5 SKUs) include 3 user seats. Procurement bundle (15 SKUs) includes 5 seats. Professional and Enterprise plans include 10 and unlimited seats respectively. Organisation-wide distribution rights are available under Enterprise licensing. Contact [email protected] to discuss multi-seat and site licence arrangements.
What sources do you use for price data?
Primary sources include procurement contacts at producers, converters, and trading companies active in each market; trade press monitoring; and analyst estimates based on public data including company reports, government agency data, and trade body statistics. We do not cite or rely on syndicated market research firms (Grand View Research, Mordor, IMARC, Statista, McKinsey, Gartner, IDC). We do not use AI-generated market data. All source data is primary and independently verified where possible.
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Steel HRC - Asia
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Report Details
SKU IDNXP-MM-001
PublishedQ2 2026 · June
FormatPDF + Excel
Pages~14 pages
Update cycleMonthly
DeliveryWithin 2 hours
LanguageEnglish
Included in every plan
Monthly price brief - PDF + Excel
Grade-level price breakdown - all commercial grades
Supply and demand commentary with operating rates
Capacity atlas - site-level producer detail
Trade flow intelligence with Hormuz risk rating
Feedstock and production margin analysis
3-scenario forward price outlook to Q1 2027
Analyst perspectives - Kellner and Venkat
Procurement recommendation per scenario
Weekly disruption alerts (Procurement plan+)
API data delivery (Professional plan+)
Dedicated analyst access (Enterprise only)
Methodology disclaimer: Nexchem Intelligence price reports contain indicative price intelligence compiled from primary procurement contacts, trade press monitoring, and analyst estimates. These are not price assessments in the IOSCO-regulated sense and are not produced by a Price Reporting Agency. Do not use for contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, financial reporting, or derivative pricing. All figures are estimates. Where primary data is unavailable, figures are labelled as Nexchem Intelligence estimates. Nexchem Intelligence accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of this report.
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