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Home/Price Trends/Ammonia - US Gulf Coast

Indicative price brief for Ammonia - US Gulf Coast. Methodology: trade publications, broker reports, and industry sources reviewed by Nexchem. This is directional intelligence, not a regulated benchmark assessment.

NXP-IG-007 Industrial Gases US Gulf Coast FOB US Gulf Coast Updated June 2026

Ammonia - US Gulf Coast
Price Intelligence Report

USGC ammonia FOB spot pricing at Donaldsonville and Freeport reference points. CF Industries and Koch Fertilizer operating rate tracker, US natural gas Henry Hub feedstock cost, export demand to NWE and Asia, Tampa CFR import reference, and 3-scenario price outlook. Published monthly.

USGC ammonia is experiencing an export demand surge that it has rarely seen before - elevated European and Asian import prices from the Hormuz disruption are making USGC ammonia competitive for delivery to Rotterdam and Mumbai at pricing that was previously uneconomic, turning CF Industries Donaldsonville and Koch Fertilizer Enid into swing suppliers for global nitrogen markets in a way that has not happened since the 2022 European gas crisis.

US Gulf Coast - FOB USGC Spot
USD 284/MT
USGC · FOB · Spot · June 2026
▲ +USD 38 (+15.4% vs June 2025)
MT / (Jan 2026)12-Month RangeUSD 318/ (Oct 2025)
12-Month High
USD 318/
Oct 2025
12-Month Low
MT /
Jan 2026
Annual Subscription
USD 6,900
USD 575/mo equiv · 17% saving
Used by
🏢Corporate strategy and procurement teams
💼Private equity and venture capital investors
🔬Chemical and materials R&D teams
📊Management and strategy consultants
🏦Investment banking and M&A advisory
Report Contents - 9 Sections~14 pages · PDF + Excel
01
Market Metrics
Current spot price, 12-month high and low, year on year change, and the key spread indicator - feedstock or conversion margin - that drives near-term pricing direction
02
Price by Grade
Full grade-level price table covering all commercial grades with Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025 comparison, direction indicator, and basis notation
Full data in paid report
03
Supply and Demand
Regional supply and demand balance for 2024 actual, 2025 estimated, and 2026 to 2027 forecast - production volumes, import dependency by origin, operating rates, and key capacity events
Full data in paid report
04
Capacity Atlas
Site-level producer table covering company, facility location, nameplate capacity in KT per year, production technology, current operating status, and analyst notes on reliability and qualification risk
Full data in paid report
05
Trade Flows
Import and export volume data by origin and destination with Hormuz disruption risk rating, vessel transit times, and freight cost comparison across supply routes
Full data in paid report
06
Margin Analysis
Feedstock cost and gross margin decomposition by production route - NWE naphtha versus Middle East ethane versus USGC ethane versus Chinese coal - with sensitivity table
Full data in paid report
07
Price Drivers
3 to 4 named drivers ranked by near-term price impact with quantified supply or cost effect per driver, driver-specific timeline, and risk rating
Full data in paid report
08
Forward Scenarios
Bull, Base, and Bear price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027 with probability weighting, key assumptions, scenario trigger events, and a procurement recommendation for each case
Full data in paid report
09
Analyst Perspectives
Nexchem Intelligence analyst field intelligence on supply shortages, alternative source qualification timelines, geopolitical friction, and pricing pressure specific to this market
Full data in paid report
Active Supply and Market Alerts2 Active Alerts
INFO
USGC Export Demand Surge - NWE and Asian Buyers Diverting to US Supply - European buyers displaced from Middle Eastern ammonia supply and Asian buyers competing for Trinidad supply are both directing increased orders to USGC producers. CF Industries has reported elevated export booking rates through Q3 2026, with USGC ammonia now competitive for Rotterdam delivery at freight rates that close the arbitrage at current price differentials.
MEDIUM
Henry Hub Gas Cost Elevation - LNG Export Demand from Europe - European LNG import demand to replace Hormuz-disrupted Middle Eastern LNG supply is tightening the US Henry Hub natural gas market, elevating USGC ammonia production cost from approximately USD 108 per metric tonne in June 2025 to approximately USD 142 per metric tonne in June 2026. This production cost increase is the primary domestic driver of the USD 38 per metric tonne FOB price increase.
Price by Grade - Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025Preview · 2 of 6 grades shown
Grade / ProductRegion / BasisQ2 2026Q2 2025Direction
Ammonia FOB USGC SpotUSGC (FOB)USD 284/MTUSD 246/MT↑ Rising
Ammonia CF Donaldsonville ref.USGC DonaldsonvilleUSD 278/MTUSD 240/MT↑ Rising
Ammonia FOB Tampa CFR ref.Tampa (CFR import)USD 308/MTUSD 264/MTRising
Henry Hub Natural Gas feedstockUSD/MMBtuUSD 3.84/MMBtuUSD 2.96/MMBtuRising
NH3 Production Cost est. USGCUSD/MT~USD 142/MT~USD 108/MTRising
USGC Export to NWE delivered est.CIF Rotterdam est.USD 342/MTUSD 298/MTRising
Full grade price table in paid report  ·  Subscribe from USD 6,900/yr
Supply and Demand - Market ContextPreview · Full data in paid report

USGC ammonia production capacity is anchored by CF Industries at Donaldsonville Louisiana with approximately 2.1 million MT per year - the world largest single ammonia facility - and Freeport Texas with approximately 720 KT per year, Koch Fertilizer at Enid Oklahoma with approximately 840 KT per year, and OCI Beaumont at Beaumont Texas with approximately 660 KT per year. USGC ammonia production has benefited from low US natural gas costs relative to European and Asian gas benchmarks since the US shale gas revolution, maintaining a structural cost advantage versus non-US producers that persists at current gas pricing. Demand for Ammonia in US Gulf Coast is driven by industrial process applications across fertiliser, metal processing, and chemical synthesis end uses, with pricing linked to domestic production economics and the cost of the marginal swing supply source serving regional buyers at current volume requirements. NWE and Asian Buyers Diverting to US Supply - European buyers displaced from Middle Eastern ammonia supply and Asian buyers competing for Trinidad supply are both directing increased orders to USGC producers. CF Industries has reported elevated export booking rates through Q3 2. In the current 2026 supply and demand environment, Ammonia pricing in US Gulf Coast reflects both structural market conditions and active geopolitical supply chain disruption.

The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For USGC ammonia, the Hormuz disruption creates a simultaneous demand tailwind and cost headwind. The demand tailwind comes from European and Asian buyers displaced from Middle Eastern supply turning to USGC as an alternative. The cost headwind comes from elevated Henry Hub natural gas costs as European LNG import demand tightens the US gas market. LNG Export Demand from Europe - European LNG import demand to replace Hormuz-disrupted Middle Eastern LNG supply is tightening the US Henry Hub natural gas market, elevating USGC ammonia production cost from approximat.

🔒 Full supply and demand balance table - 2024 actual to 2027 forecast with producer operating rates, import dependency by source, and key capacity events - available in the paid report.
YoY Price Change
+15.4%
vs June 2025 · June 2026 basis
12-Month Range
MT / - USD 318/
Jan 2026 low · Oct 2025 high
Report Subscription
USD 6,900/yr
Monthly PDF + Excel · 9 sections
Field Context - US Gulf Coast
The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For USGC ammonia, the Hormuz disruption creates a simultaneous demand tailwind and cost headwind. The demand tailwind comes from European and Asian buyers displaced from Middle...
Report Format PreviewPDF · ~14 pages · Navy structured layout

The paid report is a professionally formatted PDF with structured sections, colour-coded grade price tables, alert boxes, capacity atlas tables, a 3-scenario price outlook, and analyst cards. The accompanying Excel file contains all price data in editable format for direct integration into procurement models.

🔒
Sample page visible after subscription

Full report preview available after subscription. Illustrative mock shown above.

Analyst PerspectivesNexchem Intelligence Analysts

Every Nexchem Intelligence price report includes field-level analyst commentary covering supply shortages, qualification timelines, geopolitical friction, and pricing pressure - not generic market narrative. Nexchem analysts are active in the market and attribute all field intelligence to verifiable primary sources.

NX
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst
Head of Petrochemicals & Specialty Chemicals
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst · Field intelligence · Procurement contacts
"CF Industries Donaldsonville as a swing supplier for global ammonia markets is a role the USGC did not occupy before 2022 - US natural gas cost advantage relative to Europe was always there but the freight economics to NWE and Asia rarely closed the arbitrage at sufficient volume. The Hormuz disruption has opened the arbitrage simultaneously to NWE and Asia in a way that makes USGC ammonia a genuinely global supply swing rather than a primarily US domestic and Latin American supplier."
Nexchem Procurement View
Extended perspective and procurement recommendation locked - available in paid report
Extended analyst perspective in paid report
NX
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst
Head of Advanced Materials & Green Chemicals
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst · Field intelligence · Procurement contacts
"The Henry Hub gas cost increase from USD 2.96 to USD 3.84 per MMBtu is a consequence of the Hormuz disruption reaching the US gas market through LNG export demand - European buyers seeking non-Middle Eastern LNG are pulling additional US LNG exports, tightening Henry Hub, and increasing USGC ammonia production cost by approximately USD 34 per metric tonne. That cost pass-through from Hormuz to USGC ammonia through the LNG export chain is a market linkage that most North American ammonia buyers have not modelled."
Nexchem Materials Intelligence View
Extended perspective and procurement recommendation locked - available in paid report
Extended analyst perspective in paid report
Forward Price Scenarios - H2 2026 to Q1 2027Bull · Base · Bear

The paid report includes full scenario assumptions, quarterly price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027, probability weighting for each scenario, and a procurement recommendation tailored to each case - covering what to do if the bull case materialises, what to hedge in the base case, and how to protect exposure in the bear case.

Bull Case
USD 322 - 358
Q3 2026 · 25% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
Base Case
USD 264 - 300
Q3 2026 · 50% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
Bear Case
USD 194 - 230
Q3 2026 · 25% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
2026 Geopolitical Supply Chain ContextHormuz · US-Iran · Iranian Methanol

The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For USGC ammonia, the Hormuz disruption creates a simultaneous demand tailwind and cost headwind. The demand tailwind comes from European and Asian buyers displaced from Middle Eastern supply turning to USGC as an alternative. The cost headwind comes from elevated Henry Hub natural gas costs as European LNG import demand tightens the US gas market. The net effect is a USD 38 per metric tonne FOB price increase that is partly demand-driven and partly cost-driven, making USGC ammonia one of the clearest examples of how the Hormuz disruption propagates through multiple channels simultaneously to markets that have no direct Middle Eastern supply chain exposure.

Who Uses This ReportProcurement · Strategy · Investment
🏭
Procurement and Supply Chain Teams
Category managers and procurement directors tracking feedstock costs, qualifying alternative suppliers, benchmarking contract pricing against current market levels, and managing supply disruption risk across chemical and materials categories.
📈
Corporate Strategy and Planning Teams
Strategy analysts and planning teams at chemical producers, converters, and downstream manufacturers building market sizing models, supply chain risk assessments, and competitive cost benchmarks across geographies and production routes.
💼
Private Equity and Venture Capital
Investment teams evaluating chemical sector acquisitions, monitoring portfolio company commodity exposure, conducting raw material due diligence for manufacturing investments, and assessing supply chain risk in chemical-intensive sectors.
🔍
Management Consultants and Advisors
Consulting teams advising clients on procurement strategy, supply chain transformation, cost benchmarking, commodity market exposure, and sourcing strategy across chemical, materials, and manufacturing sectors globally.
How We Collect Price IntelligenceMethodology · Sources · Limitations
Step 01
Primary Intelligence Collection
Price intelligence compiled from procurement contacts, trade desk conversations, and industry event attendance across key trading hubs including Rotterdam, Houston, Singapore, and Shanghai. Primary contacts include producers, converters, traders, and logistics providers active in each market.
Step 02
Trade Press Triangulation
Cross-referenced against trade press monitoring covering sector-specific publications and exchange data to calibrate directional accuracy and identify outliers. Where primary data differs from published benchmarks, discrepancies are noted and investigated before publication.
Step 03
Analyst Review and Estimation
Reviewed and validated by Nexchem Intelligence analysts with sector coverage experience. Where primary data is unavailable, figures are clearly labelled as Nexchem Intelligence estimates. Not a price assessment. Not for contract settlement or derivative pricing.

Important: Nexchem Intelligence price reports are indicative price intelligence, not price assessments. We are not a Price Reporting Agency and our prices are not IOSCO-compliant. For contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, or derivative pricing, use ICIS, Argus, or S&P Global Platts. Our reports are for procurement strategy, supply chain planning, and market analysis only.

Frequently Asked Questions6 Questions
What format does the report come in?
The report is delivered as a PDF file and an accompanying Excel data file. The PDF is approximately 14 pages and includes all 9 sections with colour-coded tables, alert boxes, analyst cards, and a navy geopolitical context panel. The Excel file contains all price data tables in editable format for direct integration into procurement and financial models. Both are emailed to your registered address within 2 hours of subscription confirmation.
How often is this report updated?
Price intelligence reports are updated monthly. Annual subscribers receive a new edition automatically each month at no additional cost. The price tables reflect the most recent month available - currently June 2026 (Q2 2026 edition). Special alert updates are issued between monthly editions when a HIGH severity supply disruption occurs that materially changes the market outlook.
Is this an official price assessment like ICIS or Argus?
No. Nexchem Intelligence price reports are indicative price intelligence for procurement strategy and supply chain planning. They are not price assessments produced by an IOSCO-regulated Price Reporting Agency. They should not be used for contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, financial reporting, or derivative pricing. For those applications, ICIS or Argus are the appropriate sources. Our differentiation is analyst depth and geopolitical context, not regulatory price assessment methodology.
Can I cancel my subscription?
Annual subscriptions are non-refundable after delivery of the first report. Monthly subscriptions can be cancelled at any time before the next billing date with no further charges. Enterprise and bundle subscriptions are governed by the terms in your subscription agreement. Contact [email protected] for any subscription queries.
Can I share the report within my organisation?
Single SKU subscriptions include 1 user seat. Analyst bundle subscriptions (5 SKUs) include 3 user seats. Procurement bundle (15 SKUs) includes 5 seats. Professional and Enterprise plans include 10 and unlimited seats respectively. Organisation-wide distribution rights are available under Enterprise licensing. Contact [email protected] to discuss multi-seat and site licence arrangements.
What sources do you use for price data?
Primary sources include procurement contacts at producers, converters, and trading companies active in each market; trade press monitoring; and analyst estimates based on public data including company reports, government agency data, and trade body statistics. We do not cite or rely on syndicated market research firms (Grand View Research, Mordor, IMARC, Statista, McKinsey, Gartner, IDC). We do not use AI-generated market data. All source data is primary and independently verified where possible.
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Ammonia - US Gulf Coast
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Report Details
SKU IDNXP-IG-007
PublishedQ2 2026 · June
FormatPDF + Excel
Pages~14 pages
Update cycleMonthly
DeliveryWithin 2 hours
LanguageEnglish
Included in every plan
Monthly price brief - PDF + Excel
Grade-level price breakdown - all commercial grades
Supply and demand commentary with operating rates
Capacity atlas - site-level producer detail
Trade flow intelligence with Hormuz risk rating
Feedstock and production margin analysis
3-scenario forward price outlook to Q1 2027
Analyst perspectives - Kellner and Venkat
Procurement recommendation per scenario
Weekly disruption alerts (Procurement plan+)
API data delivery (Professional plan+)
Dedicated analyst access (Enterprise only)
Methodology disclaimer: Nexchem Intelligence price reports contain indicative price intelligence compiled from primary procurement contacts, trade press monitoring, and analyst estimates. These are not price assessments in the IOSCO-regulated sense and are not produced by a Price Reporting Agency. Do not use for contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, financial reporting, or derivative pricing. All figures are estimates. Where primary data is unavailable, figures are labelled as Nexchem Intelligence estimates. Nexchem Intelligence accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of this report.
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