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Indicative price brief for Ammonia - Middle East. Methodology: trade publications, broker reports, and industry sources reviewed by Nexchem. This is directional intelligence, not a regulated benchmark assessment.

NXP-IG-008 Industrial Gases Middle East FOB Middle East Updated June 2026

Ammonia - Middle East
Price Intelligence Report

FOB Middle East ammonia spot pricing. QAFCO and Maaden export terminal disruption analysis, Hormuz closure export logistics assessment, natural gas feedstock cost advantage, India and East Asia import demand, and 3-scenario price outlook. Published monthly.

Middle Eastern ammonia pricing in June 2026 is the most direct illustration of the Hormuz paradox for Gulf chemical producers - FOB pricing is up 16.7% year on year because the Hormuz disruption is tightening the global supply balance, but the producers setting that FOB price cannot fully monetise it because the vessel loading delays, insurance surcharges, and alternative routing costs are absorbing a significant portion of the FOB price premium in delivered economics.

Middle East - FOB Middle East Spot
USD 224/MT
FOB Middle East · Spot · June 2026
▲ +USD 32 (+16.7% vs June 2025)
MT / (Feb 2026)12-Month RangeUSD 248/ (Oct 2025)
12-Month High
USD 248/
Oct 2025
12-Month Low
MT /
Feb 2026
Annual Subscription
USD 6,900
USD 575/mo equiv · 17% saving
Used by
🏢Corporate strategy and procurement teams
💼Private equity and venture capital investors
🔬Chemical and materials R&D teams
📊Management and strategy consultants
🏦Investment banking and M&A advisory
Report Contents - 9 Sections~14 pages · PDF + Excel
01
Market Metrics
Current spot price, 12-month high and low, year on year change, and the key spread indicator - feedstock or conversion margin - that drives near-term pricing direction
02
Price by Grade
Full grade-level price table covering all commercial grades with Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025 comparison, direction indicator, and basis notation
Full data in paid report
03
Supply and Demand
Regional supply and demand balance for 2024 actual, 2025 estimated, and 2026 to 2027 forecast - production volumes, import dependency by origin, operating rates, and key capacity events
Full data in paid report
04
Capacity Atlas
Site-level producer table covering company, facility location, nameplate capacity in KT per year, production technology, current operating status, and analyst notes on reliability and qualification risk
Full data in paid report
05
Trade Flows
Import and export volume data by origin and destination with Hormuz disruption risk rating, vessel transit times, and freight cost comparison across supply routes
Full data in paid report
06
Margin Analysis
Feedstock cost and gross margin decomposition by production route - NWE naphtha versus Middle East ethane versus USGC ethane versus Chinese coal - with sensitivity table
Full data in paid report
07
Price Drivers
3 to 4 named drivers ranked by near-term price impact with quantified supply or cost effect per driver, driver-specific timeline, and risk rating
Full data in paid report
08
Forward Scenarios
Bull, Base, and Bear price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027 with probability weighting, key assumptions, scenario trigger events, and a procurement recommendation for each case
Full data in paid report
09
Analyst Perspectives
Nexchem Intelligence analyst field intelligence on supply shortages, alternative source qualification timelines, geopolitical friction, and pricing pressure specific to this market
Full data in paid report
Active Supply and Market Alerts2 Active Alerts
HIGH
Strait of Hormuz - Ammonia Tanker Dispatch Delays at Jubail and Ruwais - QAFCO Mesaieed, Maaden Al-Jubail, and Fertil Ruwais ammonia export terminals are experiencing tanker loading delays of 10 to 18 days versus normal 2 to 4 day vessel turnarounds. The combination of vessel scheduling uncertainty and marine insurance surcharges of USD 28 to USD 42 per metric tonne is reducing effective Middle Eastern ammonia export volumes and increasing delivered cost at all import destinations.
MEDIUM
India Ammonia Demand - Fertiliser Chain Import Watch - India downstream ammonia demand for DAP and MAP phosphate fertiliser production at Coromandel, Deepak Fertilisers, and Rashtriya Chemicals is absorbing available import supply from Trinidad, Egypt, and US Gulf Coast sources that are replacing disrupted Middle Eastern volumes. CFR India pricing at USD 284 per metric tonne reflects this tighter-than-normal supply environment for Indian importers.
Price by Grade - Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025Preview · 2 of 6 grades shown
Grade / ProductRegion / BasisQ2 2026Q2 2025Direction
Ammonia FOB Middle East SpotFOB Middle EastUSD 224/MTUSD 192/MT↑ Rising
Ammonia CFR India delivered est.CFR IndiaUSD 284/MTUSD 244/MT↑ Rising
Ammonia CFR NWE delivered ref.CFR NWEUSD 298/MTUSD 252/MTRising
Hormuz Surcharge est. per MTAdditional costUSD 28-42/MTUSD 0/MTRising
Natural Gas Production Cost est.USD/MT NH3~USD 42/MT~USD 38/MTRising
FOB Middle East to CFR India SpreadUSD/MTUSD 60/MTUSD 52/MTRising
Full grade price table in paid report  ·  Subscribe from USD 6,900/yr
Supply and Demand - Market ContextPreview · Full data in paid report

Middle Eastern ammonia production capacity is among the lowest cost globally, using subsidised natural gas from associated production at estimated feedstock cost of approximately USD 42 per metric tonne of ammonia versus USD 136 per metric tonne for European gas-based producers at current TTF pricing. QAFCO at Mesaieed Qatar with approximately 2.1 million MT per year, Maaden at Al-Jubail Saudi Arabia with approximately 1.2 million MT per year, and Fertil at Ruwais Abu Dhabi with approximately 1.0 million MT per year are the primary Middle Eastern ammonia exporters. All three export terminals are affected by the Hormuz closure, with Ruwais directly inside the Gulf and Mesaieed and Jubail requiring Hormuz transit for westward (European) delivery. Demand for Ammonia in Middle East is driven by industrial process applications across fertiliser, metal processing, and chemical synthesis end uses, with pricing linked to domestic production economics and the cost of the marginal swing supply source serving regional buyers at current volume requirements. Ammonia Tanker Dispatch Delays at Jubail and Ruwais - QAFCO Mesaieed, Maaden Al-Jubail, and Fertil Ruwais ammonia export terminals are experiencing tanker loading delays of 10 to 18 days versus normal 2 to 4 day vessel turnarounds.

The combination of vessel scheduling uncertain. In the current 2026 supply and demand environment, Ammonia pricing in Middle East reflects both structural market conditions and active geopolitical supply chain disruption. The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For FOB Middle East ammonia, the Hormuz disruption is the dominant and direct pricing driver - the Strait of Hormuz is the only viable shipping route for ammonia tankers departing Ruwais, Jubail, and Mesaieed, and the closure creates tanker scheduling delays, insurance surcharges, and alternative routing costs that simultaneously reduce export volumes and increase delivered cost. The FOB price increase of USD 32 per metric tonne year on year is smaller than the CFR price increase at import destinations because the Hormuz surcharge is shared between the FOB price and the freight component depending on delivery terms, meaning the full Hormuz cost impact is visible only when comparing total delivered cost rather than FOB pricing alone. Fertiliser Chain Import Watch - India downstream ammonia demand for DAP and MAP phosphate fertiliser production at Coromandel, Deepak Fertilisers, and Rashtriya Chemicals is absorbing available import supply from Trini.

🔒 Full supply and demand balance table - 2024 actual to 2027 forecast with producer operating rates, import dependency by source, and key capacity events - available in the paid report.
YoY Price Change
+16.7%
vs June 2025 · June 2026 basis
12-Month Range
MT / - USD 248/
Feb 2026 low · Oct 2025 high
Report Subscription
USD 6,900/yr
Monthly PDF + Excel · 9 sections
Field Context - Middle East
The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For FOB Middle East ammonia, the Hormuz disruption is the dominant and direct pricing driver - the Strait of Hormuz is the only viable shipping route for ammonia tankers depa...
Report Format PreviewPDF · ~14 pages · Navy structured layout

The paid report is a professionally formatted PDF with structured sections, colour-coded grade price tables, alert boxes, capacity atlas tables, a 3-scenario price outlook, and analyst cards. The accompanying Excel file contains all price data in editable format for direct integration into procurement models.

🔒
Sample page visible after subscription

Full report preview available after subscription. Illustrative mock shown above.

Analyst PerspectivesNexchem Intelligence Analysts

Every Nexchem Intelligence price report includes field-level analyst commentary covering supply shortages, qualification timelines, geopolitical friction, and pricing pressure - not generic market narrative. Nexchem analysts are active in the market and attribute all field intelligence to verifiable primary sources.

NX
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst
Head of Petrochemicals & Specialty Chemicals
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst · Field intelligence · Procurement contacts
"Middle Eastern ammonia producers are in the paradoxical position of setting a FOB price that is 16.7% above June 2025 while their actual export volumes are below normal due to the Hormuz tanker delays - the FOB price reflects scarcity that Middle Eastern producers cannot fully monetise at volume, because the cost of getting the ammonia out of the Gulf is eating into the scarcity premium they should be capturing."
Nexchem Procurement View
Extended perspective and procurement recommendation locked - available in paid report
Extended analyst perspective in paid report
NX
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst
Head of Advanced Materials & Green Chemicals
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst · Field intelligence · Procurement contacts
"The USD 28 to USD 42 per metric tonne Hormuz surcharge on Middle Eastern ammonia is a number that every ammonia buyer globally should incorporate into their supply chain cost modelling - it is not a one-time disruption cost but a recurring operational cost for Middle Eastern ammonia supply for as long as the Hormuz situation persists, and it changes the relative economics of Middle Eastern versus Trinidad and USGC ammonia supply for all destination markets."
Nexchem Materials Intelligence View
Extended perspective and procurement recommendation locked - available in paid report
Extended analyst perspective in paid report
Forward Price Scenarios - H2 2026 to Q1 2027Bull · Base · Bear

The paid report includes full scenario assumptions, quarterly price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027, probability weighting for each scenario, and a procurement recommendation tailored to each case - covering what to do if the bull case materialises, what to hedge in the base case, and how to protect exposure in the bear case.

Bull Case
USD 252 - 284
Q3 2026 · 25% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
Base Case
USD 208 - 240
Q3 2026 · 50% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
Bear Case
USD 158 - 190
Q3 2026 · 25% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
2026 Geopolitical Supply Chain ContextHormuz · US-Iran · Iranian Methanol

The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For FOB Middle East ammonia, the Hormuz disruption is the dominant and direct pricing driver - the Strait of Hormuz is the only viable shipping route for ammonia tankers departing Ruwais, Jubail, and Mesaieed, and the closure creates tanker scheduling delays, insurance surcharges, and alternative routing costs that simultaneously reduce export volumes and increase delivered cost. The FOB price increase of USD 32 per metric tonne year on year is smaller than the CFR price increase at import destinations because the Hormuz surcharge is shared between the FOB price and the freight component depending on delivery terms, meaning the full Hormuz cost impact is visible only when comparing total delivered cost rather than FOB pricing alone.

Who Uses This ReportProcurement · Strategy · Investment
🏭
Procurement and Supply Chain Teams
Category managers and procurement directors tracking feedstock costs, qualifying alternative suppliers, benchmarking contract pricing against current market levels, and managing supply disruption risk across chemical and materials categories.
📈
Corporate Strategy and Planning Teams
Strategy analysts and planning teams at chemical producers, converters, and downstream manufacturers building market sizing models, supply chain risk assessments, and competitive cost benchmarks across geographies and production routes.
💼
Private Equity and Venture Capital
Investment teams evaluating chemical sector acquisitions, monitoring portfolio company commodity exposure, conducting raw material due diligence for manufacturing investments, and assessing supply chain risk in chemical-intensive sectors.
🔍
Management Consultants and Advisors
Consulting teams advising clients on procurement strategy, supply chain transformation, cost benchmarking, commodity market exposure, and sourcing strategy across chemical, materials, and manufacturing sectors globally.
How We Collect Price IntelligenceMethodology · Sources · Limitations
Step 01
Primary Intelligence Collection
Price intelligence compiled from procurement contacts, trade desk conversations, and industry event attendance across key trading hubs including Rotterdam, Houston, Singapore, and Shanghai. Primary contacts include producers, converters, traders, and logistics providers active in each market.
Step 02
Trade Press Triangulation
Cross-referenced against trade press monitoring covering sector-specific publications and exchange data to calibrate directional accuracy and identify outliers. Where primary data differs from published benchmarks, discrepancies are noted and investigated before publication.
Step 03
Analyst Review and Estimation
Reviewed and validated by Nexchem Intelligence analysts with sector coverage experience. Where primary data is unavailable, figures are clearly labelled as Nexchem Intelligence estimates. Not a price assessment. Not for contract settlement or derivative pricing.

Important: Nexchem Intelligence price reports are indicative price intelligence, not price assessments. We are not a Price Reporting Agency and our prices are not IOSCO-compliant. For contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, or derivative pricing, use ICIS, Argus, or S&P Global Platts. Our reports are for procurement strategy, supply chain planning, and market analysis only.

Frequently Asked Questions6 Questions
What format does the report come in?
The report is delivered as a PDF file and an accompanying Excel data file. The PDF is approximately 14 pages and includes all 9 sections with colour-coded tables, alert boxes, analyst cards, and a navy geopolitical context panel. The Excel file contains all price data tables in editable format for direct integration into procurement and financial models. Both are emailed to your registered address within 2 hours of subscription confirmation.
How often is this report updated?
Price intelligence reports are updated monthly. Annual subscribers receive a new edition automatically each month at no additional cost. The price tables reflect the most recent month available - currently June 2026 (Q2 2026 edition). Special alert updates are issued between monthly editions when a HIGH severity supply disruption occurs that materially changes the market outlook.
Is this an official price assessment like ICIS or Argus?
No. Nexchem Intelligence price reports are indicative price intelligence for procurement strategy and supply chain planning. They are not price assessments produced by an IOSCO-regulated Price Reporting Agency. They should not be used for contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, financial reporting, or derivative pricing. For those applications, ICIS or Argus are the appropriate sources. Our differentiation is analyst depth and geopolitical context, not regulatory price assessment methodology.
Can I cancel my subscription?
Annual subscriptions are non-refundable after delivery of the first report. Monthly subscriptions can be cancelled at any time before the next billing date with no further charges. Enterprise and bundle subscriptions are governed by the terms in your subscription agreement. Contact [email protected] for any subscription queries.
Can I share the report within my organisation?
Single SKU subscriptions include 1 user seat. Analyst bundle subscriptions (5 SKUs) include 3 user seats. Procurement bundle (15 SKUs) includes 5 seats. Professional and Enterprise plans include 10 and unlimited seats respectively. Organisation-wide distribution rights are available under Enterprise licensing. Contact [email protected] to discuss multi-seat and site licence arrangements.
What sources do you use for price data?
Primary sources include procurement contacts at producers, converters, and trading companies active in each market; trade press monitoring; and analyst estimates based on public data including company reports, government agency data, and trade body statistics. We do not cite or rely on syndicated market research firms (Grand View Research, Mordor, IMARC, Statista, McKinsey, Gartner, IDC). We do not use AI-generated market data. All source data is primary and independently verified where possible.
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Ammonia - Middle East
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Report Details
SKU IDNXP-IG-008
PublishedQ2 2026 · June
FormatPDF + Excel
Pages~14 pages
Update cycleMonthly
DeliveryWithin 2 hours
LanguageEnglish
Included in every plan
Monthly price brief - PDF + Excel
Grade-level price breakdown - all commercial grades
Supply and demand commentary with operating rates
Capacity atlas - site-level producer detail
Trade flow intelligence with Hormuz risk rating
Feedstock and production margin analysis
3-scenario forward price outlook to Q1 2027
Analyst perspectives - Kellner and Venkat
Procurement recommendation per scenario
Weekly disruption alerts (Procurement plan+)
API data delivery (Professional plan+)
Dedicated analyst access (Enterprise only)
Methodology disclaimer: Nexchem Intelligence price reports contain indicative price intelligence compiled from primary procurement contacts, trade press monitoring, and analyst estimates. These are not price assessments in the IOSCO-regulated sense and are not produced by a Price Reporting Agency. Do not use for contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, financial reporting, or derivative pricing. All figures are estimates. Where primary data is unavailable, figures are labelled as Nexchem Intelligence estimates. Nexchem Intelligence accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of this report.
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