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Indicative price brief for Ammonia - Asia. Methodology: trade publications, broker reports, and industry sources reviewed by Nexchem. This is directional intelligence, not a regulated benchmark assessment.

NXP-IG-006 Industrial Gases Asia CFR SE Asia / India Updated June 2026

Ammonia - Asia
Price Intelligence Report

CFR SE Asia and India ammonia spot pricing. Middle East Hormuz export disruption impact, Trinidad and Tobago alternative supply analysis, India DAP and MAP fertiliser chain demand, Indonesian industrial and fertiliser demand, and 3-scenario price outlook. Published monthly.

Asian ammonia importing countries in Southeast Asia and India are experiencing a supply repositioning that the Russia-Ukraine conflict started and the Hormuz closure is accelerating - the Middle East, which supplied approximately 42% of Asian ammonia imports under normal conditions, is now a disrupted and higher-cost source, forcing Asian buyers to develop longer-haul supply relationships with Trinidad, the US Gulf Coast, and Egypt that permanently increase the structural cost of Asian ammonia supply.

Asia - CFR SE Asia / India Spot
USD 272/MT
CFR SE Asia / India · Spot · June 2026
▲ +USD 38 (+16.2% vs June 2025)
MT / (Jan 2026)12-Month RangeUSD 304/ (Oct 2025)
12-Month High
USD 304/
Oct 2025
12-Month Low
MT /
Jan 2026
Annual Subscription
USD 6,900
USD 575/mo equiv · 17% saving
Used by
🏢Corporate strategy and procurement teams
💼Private equity and venture capital investors
🔬Chemical and materials R&D teams
📊Management and strategy consultants
🏦Investment banking and M&A advisory
Report Contents - 9 Sections~14 pages · PDF + Excel
01
Market Metrics
Current spot price, 12-month high and low, year on year change, and the key spread indicator - feedstock or conversion margin - that drives near-term pricing direction
02
Price by Grade
Full grade-level price table covering all commercial grades with Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025 comparison, direction indicator, and basis notation
Full data in paid report
03
Supply and Demand
Regional supply and demand balance for 2024 actual, 2025 estimated, and 2026 to 2027 forecast - production volumes, import dependency by origin, operating rates, and key capacity events
Full data in paid report
04
Capacity Atlas
Site-level producer table covering company, facility location, nameplate capacity in KT per year, production technology, current operating status, and analyst notes on reliability and qualification risk
Full data in paid report
05
Trade Flows
Import and export volume data by origin and destination with Hormuz disruption risk rating, vessel transit times, and freight cost comparison across supply routes
Full data in paid report
06
Margin Analysis
Feedstock cost and gross margin decomposition by production route - NWE naphtha versus Middle East ethane versus USGC ethane versus Chinese coal - with sensitivity table
Full data in paid report
07
Price Drivers
3 to 4 named drivers ranked by near-term price impact with quantified supply or cost effect per driver, driver-specific timeline, and risk rating
Full data in paid report
08
Forward Scenarios
Bull, Base, and Bear price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027 with probability weighting, key assumptions, scenario trigger events, and a procurement recommendation for each case
Full data in paid report
09
Analyst Perspectives
Nexchem Intelligence analyst field intelligence on supply shortages, alternative source qualification timelines, geopolitical friction, and pricing pressure specific to this market
Full data in paid report
Active Supply and Market Alerts2 Active Alerts
HIGH
Middle East Ammonia Supply - 20-30% Volume Reduction from Hormuz - Middle Eastern ammonia export volumes to Asian markets are reduced by an estimated 20% to 30% versus pre-disruption baseline. Indonesian Pupuk Indonesia, Malaysian PETRONAS Chemicals, and Indian Deepak Fertilisers are among the buyers managing higher-than-normal spot procurement from Trinidad and USGC to compensate for Middle Eastern shortfalls.
INFO
Indonesia Fertiliser Demand - State Procurement Supporting CFR Pricing - Pupuk Indonesia state fertiliser company procurement of ammonia for domestic urea production is providing stable demand support for CFR SE Asia pricing. Indonesia is Southeast Asia's largest ammonia importer and Pupuk Indonesia's procurement cycle creates predictable seasonal demand that absorbs available supply from Trinidad and USGC at current pricing levels.
Price by Grade - Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025Preview · 2 of 6 grades shown
Grade / ProductRegion / BasisQ2 2026Q2 2025Direction
Ammonia CFR SE Asia/India SpotCFR SE Asia/IndiaUSD 272/MTUSD 234/MT↑ Rising
Ammonia CFR MalaysiaCFR MalaysiaUSD 268/MTUSD 228/MT↑ Rising
Ammonia CFR IndonesiaCFR IndonesiaUSD 276/MTUSD 238/MTRising
Middle East FOB ref. disruptedFOB Middle EastUSD 224/MTUSD 192/MTRising
Trinidad FOB ref.FOB TrinidadUSD 196/MTUSD 168/MTRising
USGC FOB ref.FOB USGCUSD 192/MTUSD 162/MTRising
Full grade price table in paid report  ·  Subscribe from USD 6,900/yr
Supply and Demand - Market ContextPreview · Full data in paid report

Asian ammonia import supply is sourced from the Middle East - QAFCO, Maaden, and Fertil - which is disrupted, Trinidad and Tobago through Methanex and Yara Trinidad which is unaffected by Hormuz, the US Gulf Coast through CF Industries and OCI at current elevated prices for Asian delivery, and Malaysia domestic production from Petronas Chemicals Gurun and Bintulu which partially serves the Malaysian domestic market. The Asian ammonia import market is structurally more resilient than NWE because it has a more diverse geographic supply base with Malaysian domestic production, Trinidad long-haul supply, and Egyptian supply all available as Middle Eastern alternatives, though at higher delivered cost. Demand for Ammonia in Asia is driven by industrial process applications across fertiliser, metal processing, and chemical synthesis end uses, with pricing linked to domestic production economics and the cost of the marginal swing supply source serving regional buyers at current volume requirements. 20-30% Volume Reduction from Hormuz - Middle Eastern ammonia export volumes to Asian markets are reduced by an estimated 20% to 30% versus pre-disruption baseline. Indonesian Pupuk Indonesia, Malaysian PETRONAS Chemicals, and Indian Deepak Fertilisers are among the buyers manag. In the current 2026 supply and demand environment, Ammonia pricing in Asia reflects both structural market conditions and active geopolitical supply chain disruption.

The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For CFR SE Asia and India ammonia, the Hormuz disruption reduces Middle Eastern export availability by an estimated 20% to 30% - the same mechanism as the NWE market but with a different consequence because Asian buyers have more alternative supply options at lower incremental cost than European buyers. Trinidad ammonia is well-positioned to serve Asian markets at competitive delivered costs even at current freight rates, providing a more elastic supply response than the European market where Trinidad supply is the primary but not fully sufficient alternative to Middle Eastern and Russian supply combined. State Procurement Supporting CFR Pricing - Pupuk Indonesia state fertiliser company procurement of ammonia for domestic urea production is providing stable demand support for CFR SE Asia pricing. Indonesia is Southeast.

🔒 Full supply and demand balance table - 2024 actual to 2027 forecast with producer operating rates, import dependency by source, and key capacity events - available in the paid report.
YoY Price Change
+16.2%
vs June 2025 · June 2026 basis
12-Month Range
MT / - USD 304/
Jan 2026 low · Oct 2025 high
Report Subscription
USD 6,900/yr
Monthly PDF + Excel · 9 sections
Field Context - Asia
The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For CFR SE Asia and India ammonia, the Hormuz disruption reduces Middle Eastern export availability by an estimated 20% to 30% - the same mechanism as the NWE market but with...
Report Format PreviewPDF · ~14 pages · Navy structured layout

The paid report is a professionally formatted PDF with structured sections, colour-coded grade price tables, alert boxes, capacity atlas tables, a 3-scenario price outlook, and analyst cards. The accompanying Excel file contains all price data in editable format for direct integration into procurement models.

🔒
Sample page visible after subscription

Full report preview available after subscription. Illustrative mock shown above.

Analyst PerspectivesNexchem Intelligence Analysts

Every Nexchem Intelligence price report includes field-level analyst commentary covering supply shortages, qualification timelines, geopolitical friction, and pricing pressure - not generic market narrative. Nexchem analysts are active in the market and attribute all field intelligence to verifiable primary sources.

NX
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst
Head of Petrochemicals & Specialty Chemicals
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst · Field intelligence · Procurement contacts
"Asian ammonia importing countries are more resilient to the Middle Eastern supply disruption than European buyers because they have more alternative supply sources - Trinidad to SE Asia, USGC to India, and Egyptian supply to India are all viable routes without Hormuz exposure. But all of them are more expensive than Middle Eastern supply was pre-disruption, and that permanent cost increase is what the USD 38 per metric tonne year on year price increase primarily represents."
Nexchem Procurement View
Extended perspective and procurement recommendation locked - available in paid report
Extended analyst perspective in paid report
NX
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst
Head of Advanced Materials & Green Chemicals
Nexchem Intelligence Analyst · Field intelligence · Procurement contacts
"The most commercially important consequence of the Hormuz ammonia disruption for Asian buyers is not the current price level but the supply chain architecture it is forcing - buyers who are developing Trinidad, USGC, and Egyptian supply relationships to replace Middle Eastern volumes are building supply diversity that will remain commercially valuable even after Hormuz normalises, permanently reducing their dependence on a single supply corridor."
Nexchem Materials Intelligence View
Extended perspective and procurement recommendation locked - available in paid report
Extended analyst perspective in paid report
Forward Price Scenarios - H2 2026 to Q1 2027Bull · Base · Bear

The paid report includes full scenario assumptions, quarterly price ranges for Q3 2026, Q4 2026, and Q1 2027, probability weighting for each scenario, and a procurement recommendation tailored to each case - covering what to do if the bull case materialises, what to hedge in the base case, and how to protect exposure in the bear case.

Bull Case
USD 306 - 340
Q3 2026 · 25% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
Base Case
USD 252 - 286
Q3 2026 · 50% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
Bear Case
USD 188 - 222
Q3 2026 · 25% probability
Full scenarios in paid report
2026 Geopolitical Supply Chain ContextHormuz · US-Iran · Iranian Methanol

The IMF confirmed in March 2026 that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted approximately 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG supply. For CFR SE Asia and India ammonia, the Hormuz disruption reduces Middle Eastern export availability by an estimated 20% to 30% - the same mechanism as the NWE market but with a different consequence because Asian buyers have more alternative supply options at lower incremental cost than European buyers. Trinidad ammonia is well-positioned to serve Asian markets at competitive delivered costs even at current freight rates, providing a more elastic supply response than the European market where Trinidad supply is the primary but not fully sufficient alternative to Middle Eastern and Russian supply combined.

Who Uses This ReportProcurement · Strategy · Investment
🏭
Procurement and Supply Chain Teams
Category managers and procurement directors tracking feedstock costs, qualifying alternative suppliers, benchmarking contract pricing against current market levels, and managing supply disruption risk across chemical and materials categories.
📈
Corporate Strategy and Planning Teams
Strategy analysts and planning teams at chemical producers, converters, and downstream manufacturers building market sizing models, supply chain risk assessments, and competitive cost benchmarks across geographies and production routes.
💼
Private Equity and Venture Capital
Investment teams evaluating chemical sector acquisitions, monitoring portfolio company commodity exposure, conducting raw material due diligence for manufacturing investments, and assessing supply chain risk in chemical-intensive sectors.
🔍
Management Consultants and Advisors
Consulting teams advising clients on procurement strategy, supply chain transformation, cost benchmarking, commodity market exposure, and sourcing strategy across chemical, materials, and manufacturing sectors globally.
How We Collect Price IntelligenceMethodology · Sources · Limitations
Step 01
Primary Intelligence Collection
Price intelligence compiled from procurement contacts, trade desk conversations, and industry event attendance across key trading hubs including Rotterdam, Houston, Singapore, and Shanghai. Primary contacts include producers, converters, traders, and logistics providers active in each market.
Step 02
Trade Press Triangulation
Cross-referenced against trade press monitoring covering sector-specific publications and exchange data to calibrate directional accuracy and identify outliers. Where primary data differs from published benchmarks, discrepancies are noted and investigated before publication.
Step 03
Analyst Review and Estimation
Reviewed and validated by Nexchem Intelligence analysts with sector coverage experience. Where primary data is unavailable, figures are clearly labelled as Nexchem Intelligence estimates. Not a price assessment. Not for contract settlement or derivative pricing.

Important: Nexchem Intelligence price reports are indicative price intelligence, not price assessments. We are not a Price Reporting Agency and our prices are not IOSCO-compliant. For contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, or derivative pricing, use ICIS, Argus, or S&P Global Platts. Our reports are for procurement strategy, supply chain planning, and market analysis only.

Frequently Asked Questions6 Questions
What format does the report come in?
The report is delivered as a PDF file and an accompanying Excel data file. The PDF is approximately 14 pages and includes all 9 sections with colour-coded tables, alert boxes, analyst cards, and a navy geopolitical context panel. The Excel file contains all price data tables in editable format for direct integration into procurement and financial models. Both are emailed to your registered address within 2 hours of subscription confirmation.
How often is this report updated?
Price intelligence reports are updated monthly. Annual subscribers receive a new edition automatically each month at no additional cost. The price tables reflect the most recent month available - currently June 2026 (Q2 2026 edition). Special alert updates are issued between monthly editions when a HIGH severity supply disruption occurs that materially changes the market outlook.
Is this an official price assessment like ICIS or Argus?
No. Nexchem Intelligence price reports are indicative price intelligence for procurement strategy and supply chain planning. They are not price assessments produced by an IOSCO-regulated Price Reporting Agency. They should not be used for contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, financial reporting, or derivative pricing. For those applications, ICIS or Argus are the appropriate sources. Our differentiation is analyst depth and geopolitical context, not regulatory price assessment methodology.
Can I cancel my subscription?
Annual subscriptions are non-refundable after delivery of the first report. Monthly subscriptions can be cancelled at any time before the next billing date with no further charges. Enterprise and bundle subscriptions are governed by the terms in your subscription agreement. Contact [email protected] for any subscription queries.
Can I share the report within my organisation?
Single SKU subscriptions include 1 user seat. Analyst bundle subscriptions (5 SKUs) include 3 user seats. Procurement bundle (15 SKUs) includes 5 seats. Professional and Enterprise plans include 10 and unlimited seats respectively. Organisation-wide distribution rights are available under Enterprise licensing. Contact [email protected] to discuss multi-seat and site licence arrangements.
What sources do you use for price data?
Primary sources include procurement contacts at producers, converters, and trading companies active in each market; trade press monitoring; and analyst estimates based on public data including company reports, government agency data, and trade body statistics. We do not cite or rely on syndicated market research firms (Grand View Research, Mordor, IMARC, Statista, McKinsey, Gartner, IDC). We do not use AI-generated market data. All source data is primary and independently verified where possible.
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Ammonia - Asia
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Report Details
SKU IDNXP-IG-006
PublishedQ2 2026 · June
FormatPDF + Excel
Pages~14 pages
Update cycleMonthly
DeliveryWithin 2 hours
LanguageEnglish
Included in every plan
Monthly price brief - PDF + Excel
Grade-level price breakdown - all commercial grades
Supply and demand commentary with operating rates
Capacity atlas - site-level producer detail
Trade flow intelligence with Hormuz risk rating
Feedstock and production margin analysis
3-scenario forward price outlook to Q1 2027
Analyst perspectives - Kellner and Venkat
Procurement recommendation per scenario
Weekly disruption alerts (Procurement plan+)
API data delivery (Professional plan+)
Dedicated analyst access (Enterprise only)
Methodology disclaimer: Nexchem Intelligence price reports contain indicative price intelligence compiled from primary procurement contacts, trade press monitoring, and analyst estimates. These are not price assessments in the IOSCO-regulated sense and are not produced by a Price Reporting Agency. Do not use for contract settlement, mark-to-market valuation, financial reporting, or derivative pricing. All figures are estimates. Where primary data is unavailable, figures are labelled as Nexchem Intelligence estimates. Nexchem Intelligence accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of this report.
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